henological Response to the Climate Change of Quercus Pubescens Willd. Under Conditions of Dry Subtropical
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Abstract
Three phenological models were examined with respect to their suitability to predict of leaf unfolding, beginning of flowering and to estimate possible shifts in the timing terms spring onset growth of Quercus pubescens Willd. due to climate change. One of the approaches was pure forcing (F) model (M1) and another the remaining two models (M2 and M3) were combined sequential chilling-forcing (CF) models. Of them the M3 model was modified CF model and included photoperiod. The starting date of temperature accumulation, base temperature and the forcing requirements were optimized on the basis of observed data. The starting date for the chilling-forcing models was set to 1 November. Phenological observations and temperature data in the period 1936–2017 were used to fit these models. Testing of phenological models showed highly relevant to simulate leaf unfolding and beginning of flowering dates for Q. pubescens by M3 model integrating a photoperiod cue. The pure forcing model and chilling-forcing sequential models together with meteorological projections based on three climate change scenarios CMIP5 project (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), were used to estimate Q. pubescens leaf unfolding and beginning of flowering dates along the 21st Century. Modeling studies predict that warming RCP8.5 scenario might severely affect bud dormancy release and as a result on the terms of spring onset growth.
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References
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