Оценка изменений климатических экстремумов во Вьетнаме в начале XXI века
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Аннотация
В статье представлен комплексный анализ пространственно-временной изменчивости температурного режима и режима осадков на территории Вьетнама за период 1991–2024 гг. с использованием ряда климатических индексов. Установлено, что среднегодовые температуры демонстрируют статистически значимый рост с максимальной интенсивностью потепления до 0,6 °C/10 лет в центральных регионах. Выявлен рост минимальных температур (до 0,4 °C/10 лет) и значительное увеличение количества тропических ночей (индекс TR), особенно в горных районах (до +30 дней/10 лет). Индекс абсолютных годовых максимумов (TXx) показывает резкое повышение (до +1,5 °C/10 лет) в центральных и северных регионах. Наибольший рост количества жарких дней (SU35, Tmax > 35 °C) обнаружен в северной и центральной частях Вьетнама (до +25 дней/10 лет). Анализ осадков выявил положительные и статистически значимые тренды годовых сумм осадков, особенно на наветренных склонах хребта Чыонгшон (до 70 мм/год). Наблюдаются увеличение числа дней с сильными (R10mm) и очень сильными (R20mm) осадками, а также рост индекса интенсивности осадков (SDII) в центральной части страны. Это указывает на интенсификацию экстремальных ливневых явлений. Результаты свидетельствуют о значительной трансформации климата Вьетнама, характеризующейся усилением гидрологического цикла и потеплением, что создает новые риски, связанные с тепловым стрессом и экстремальными осадками.
Авторы
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